Africa versus Canada, the first match of the knockout round. I’m going with over 2.25 goals, and I’ll explain why I’m not as pessimistic as everyone else. The story everyone is selling is that knockout football is tight, nervous, and that nobody wants to lose. Fair enough. But sometimes the first match goes the other way. Both teams look at this draw and think, hey, we can actually win this. That changes things. South Africa are at home. The stadium will be full of noise, color, and dancing. You cannot just sit back and defend for ninety minutes when your own fans are screaming for you to attack. Coach Broos knows this. They will try to play, at least a little. The problem is that when they open up, they leave gaps. Their full-backs like to push forward, and their midfield does not always cover those spaces. Canada sees that and licks its lips. Canada has real quality up front. Davies is a problem for anyone. David scores goals. Buchanan runs all day. They are not here to make up the numbers. They know South Africa’s defense is organized, but not the quickest. One long ball over the top, one quick transition, and suddenly it is a footrace. Canada wins that race. Now, I do think South Africa can score. Set pieces, corners, a lucky bounce in the box. The crowd will drive them forward and create moments. They have some tall players, some physical players. Canada’s defense is not perfect. It gives up chances. In qualifying, they had matches where they scored two but also conceded one. That pattern fits the over. The line at 2.25 gives us some protection. Three goals wins fully, while two goals loses only half. I am not saying this will be a 4-3 thriller. But a 2-1 either way is a very real possibility. The atmosphere, the occasion, the pace of Canada’s attack, the pride of South Africa at home. It all points to a match with some action.