Don’t look at Tunisia’s already-confirmed elimination and assume the Netherlands will ease off and play it safe. With the Netherlands laying 2.5 goals, the logic behind the pick is very solid. First, consider Tunisia’s mentality. After two straight defeats and nine goals conceded, the team has been thoroughly embarrassed. In this meaningless honor game, they will not sit back in a low block and absorb pressure passively. Instead, they are likely to push forward and try to score, hoping to salvage a bit of dignity. But this side’s defense has already shown plenty of weaknesses: slow reactions, poor cover, and sloppy positional support are all major issues. Once they commit bodies forward, the huge spaces left behind are exactly what the Netherlands are best at exploiting. As for the Netherlands, while qualification is basically secure, they still need to lock down top spot in the group, so there is no chance they will simply ease off. Even if half the starters are rotated, the backup quality is still far above Tunisia’s — players like Gravenberch and Berghuis are starters at top-five-league level, and all of them will be eager to fight for a place in the knockout rounds. That means the attacking intensity will only go up, not down. There will be no half-hearted performance here. They do not need to dominate with nonstop pressure for 90 minutes; as long as they control possession and tempo, and punish Tunisia’s mistakes with efficient counterattacks, they can keep creating scoring chances. Tunisia conceded five goals in each of their first two matches, which says enough about their ability to withstand pressure at the back. The Netherlands’ wide threats, central overloads, and aerial advantage from set pieces will keep coming in waves, and Tunisia simply cannot defend every area at once. Data models estimate the Netherlands’ expected goals (xG) at a steady 2.9 or higher for the match. Even if they control the game comfortably, their finishing efficiency alone should be enough to open up a three-goal gap. If Tunisia try to save face, they will have to take defensive risks, and that will only make the margin wider. A Netherlands win by three goals or more is the most reliable angle for this match.