In this Premier League season finale, the market’s subsequent adjustment to the total-goals line has drawn widespread attention. In the early stage, mainstream bookmakers generally set the threshold at 2.5/3 goals, with relatively low-to-medium returns on the over side. The live market has shown divergence: European and Asian mainstream operators represented by Crown, Easysport, and William Hill have kept the 2.5/3-goal line unchanged, but the over price has collectively dropped below 0.83; another group, such as 365 and 10bet, took the lead in restructuring the line, lifting it to 3 goals and blocking it with a high over payout of 1.05. This kind of line expansion usually reflects bookmakers’ strong caution against results above the normal scoring range of three goals. Looking at the fundamentals, although the home side faces a grim position in the standings, its home form has shown a clear pattern of strong attack and weak defense. Data shows that in its last six home matches, four finished with three goals or more, with a home over rate as high as 61.1%. The absence of the team’s defensive cornerstone in goal is a major concern, directly weakening its defensive stability and creating objective conditions for the visitors to score. The away side has been in very solid recent form, with a high unbeaten rate, and its ability to find the net on the road should not be underestimated. Although the away team’s injury list is long, it is mainly concentrated in the midfield and back line, which may create cracks in its original defensive structure. The head-to-head record further supports expectations for goals, with five of the last six meetings between the two sides going over the 2.5-goal line and frequently producing open, end-to-end contests. Taken together, with bookmakers applying dual protection through either raising the line or lowering the price, and considering that both defenses are missing key players, while the home side desperately needs points in the relegation battle and the visitors may be more relaxed mentally, this match is likely to produce a relatively lively goal count.