Let's break this down. The market has this pegged as a controlled, low-event match because Croatia likes possession and Ghana can be chaotic. But the dynamics here actually favor goals. Let me explain. First, Croatia's defensive fragility. This is not the same back line from the 2018 World Cup cycle. Gvardiol is elite, yes, but the fullback positions are vulnerable. Sosa pushes high on the left, and Stanisic or Juranovic do the same on the right. Against a Ghana side that transitions quickly down the wings, that space behind the fullbacks is a real problem. Inaki Williams and Jordan Ayew have the pace to exploit those gaps. Croatia will dominate the ball, but when they lose it, they will face quick, direct counters. Ghana's expected goals in transition situations is consistently higher than their open-play numbers. That tells me they will get chances. Second, Croatia's scoring path. Modric still controls games. Kovacic and Brozovic dictate the tempo. The ball moves, the opponent shifts, and eventually a gap appears. Ghana's defensive structure is physical, but it lacks discipline. They concede from crosses and set pieces. Their center-backs are aggressive in the air but can lose their markers on second balls and late runs into the box. Croatia's midfielders, especially Kovacic and the attacking midfield slot, are excellent at timing those late arrivals. That is a clear route to one or two goals for Croatia. Now the game script. If Croatia scores early, Ghana must open up. They cannot sit back and wait. That stretches the match, creates more transition opportunities, and increases the total expected goals. If Ghana scores first, Croatia turns up the pressure, pushes the fullbacks even higher, and the game becomes end to end. Either scenario is good for the over. The 2.25 line gives a cushion. Two goals is a half-loss. Three goals wins fully. In a match where I project total expected goals around 2.6 to 2.8, the probability of clearing 2.25 is above the implied market price. That is the edge. One more factor: set pieces. Both teams have height and good delivery. Croatia with Gvardiol and the midfield runners. Ghana with their physical forwards and center-backs. Corners and wide free kicks in a match that will likely see plenty of fouls and stoppages add another layer to the over case. This is not a classic over play, I understand that. But the defensive gaps on both sides, the transition dynamics, and the game-state triggers all point to more goals than the market expects. Over 2.25 goals. That is my read. Ethan Carter out.